Dr. Ali Riaz on the Downfall of Sheikh Hasina and Bangladesh’s Future

Ali Riaz is a Distinguished Professor in the Department of Politics and Government at Illinois State University, USA, and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. His research encompasses democratization, violent extremism, political Islam, and South Asian and Bangladeshi politics, with a focus on state-society relationships and the political economy of media. Professor Riaz has authored numerous influential works, including Charade: Bangladesh’s 2024 Election (Prothoma, 2024); Pathways of Autocratization; The Tumultuous Journey of Bangladeshi Politics (Routledge, 2024); and How Autocrats Rise: Sequences of Democratic Backsliding (Palgrave Macmillan, 2024, with Md. Sohel Rana) Professor Riaz has held notable roles, such as serving as Department Chair from 2007 to 2017 and holding the inaugural Thomas E. Eimermann Professorship (2018-2020) at Illinois State University. In 2023, he was a Visiting Researcher at the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute at Gothenburg, Sweden. His expertise also extends to journalism, having worked with the BBC World Service in London. He earned his PhD in Political Science from the University of Hawai’i in 1993 under the East West Center fellowship, where he also completed an MS in Communication (1989) and an MS in Political Science (1991). In recognition of his academic excellence, he received the East West Center Honor Award in 1990.
 
Nitya Gupta ’27 interviewed Professor Ali Riaz on Wednesday, November 6, 2024.
What were the primary factors that led to Sheikh Hasina’s resignation? What role did Hasina’s reliance on the military play in her eventual downfall?

I would not describe her downfall as a resignation. She was deposed from power through a popular uprising and then fled the country. So, let's just call it the downfall of Sheikh Hasina. As a result of 15 years’ of autocratic rule, there was a popular uprising, which resulted in this departure. Particularly if we recall the situation since the middle of the July, what we saw was a mass atrocity committed by the law enforcement agencies as well as the supporters of the ruling Awami League. I would say that Sheikh Hasina herself is liable for the atrocities; She incited it through her rhetoric and directed of the atrocity. 

The situation that we saw leading to her downfall, has two elements: 

Number one is the student uprising that started in the middle of July. Thousands and thousands of common people had joined the movement. The students' movement began demanding a reform of the quota system in the government jobs, but then it transformed into a mass upsurge. For more than a decade and a half, Bangladesh was witnessing an autocratic rule of Sheikh Hasina. Three fraudulent elections, including the last one in January, created serious grievances within the Bangladeshi population. The second important element is the extent of corruption; it permeated society, so much so that a very small group of people connected to the ruling Awami League and Sheikh Hasina benefited from it. 

What role did the military play? The military was on the sidelines to begin with when the movement started. Then Sheikh Hasina called in the military to quell the discontent and all the demonstrations. The deployment of military force was with an expectation from the government that the military would engage with the demonstrators. By then, police and other paramilitary forces were already killing hundreds of students and people. They thought that the imposition of a curfew and deployment of the military would create more fear, and people would leave the street, but that didn't happen. So, the military was faced with a very simple question: either side with the people or act as henchmen of the ruling party. The Army first decided that they would stay on the sidelines, but then given the overwhelming presence of the people on the street, it became evident that it would not be to their benefit to side with the regime. Finally, the military played a key role in the transition as they provided a safe exit to Sheikh Hasina.

The military created this window that allowed Sheikh Hasina to flee the country. Sheikh Hasina’s reliance on the military was significant because she expected that the military would save her from this situation. But the situation was already out of control, because hundreds and thousands of people were marching to the capital, from all parts of the country and all walks of life. Reliance on military eventually didn't work for Hasina, but it also helped her to flee the country.

How did the Chattra League's involvement escalate tensions between the protesters and government authorities?

The Chattra League, the student wing of the ruling Awami League party, had acted as the henchman of the regime. The group it was unleashed against students throughout the whole country, university campuses, and education institutions.. This was nothing new, as a matter of fact. Since the Awami League came to power in 2009, Chhatra League’s role was to be the goons of the regime. By 2011 they had driven out opposition activists from all campuses. Anytime there was any kind of political movement, for example, the Road Safety Movement in 2018, which was largely participated by high school students, the Chattra League was unleashed against them. They terrorized the demonstrators and beat the students. Since the student movement began in July, the ruling party’s Secretary General publicly instructed the Chhatra League to go after the demonstrators and the students. Under Sheikh Hasina’s regime, since 2009, the Chhatra League had become, for all intents and purposes, an organization which can be very much labeled as a militant organization because of the behavior of its members.

To what extent do you think the student-led protests indicate a shift in Bangladesh’s political landscape? Do you see any lasting changes in Bangladesh’s political institutions following this transitional period?

First of all, it has created the opportunity. It has created the potential of changing the political landscape. It's not going to completely shift the ground, because there are existing and well-rooted political parties in Bangladesh. Some of them have appealed to a larger population. Some of them have appealed to a smaller group of people. They're not going to go away. This is not a revolution that uproots all political life or all kinds of old organizations. It is a mass uprising. Many people call it revolution. I don't call it revolution because revolution changes everything. The July uprising hasn't changed everything but it has created the potential for structural changes. 

So, has it changed the political landscape? Partly, yes, because we have seen the rise of new political actors. Through this mass movement, we saw the rise of a group that was not connected to any political party. It was a political movement without any affiliation with the existing political parties. This is a force destined to offer something new. There are several previous occasions when students were the key actor of a movement, for example the 2018 Road Safety Movement and the 2018 Quota Reform Movement, but they never demanded changes in the government. This time, they began with a limited goal, but shifted their demands as the reality on the ground changed. The students not only demanded the removal of Sheikh Hasina; they also spoke of structural changes. So yes, in that sense, this is a new political force. Going forward, there are future possibilities of structural changes. The government has appointed some Commissions to recommend as to how to reform the system. These include changes in administration, police forces, the constitution and the electoral system. These Reform Commissions, one of which I head, are tasked to make recommendations. Whether these recommendations would succeed, whether those would be implemented, depends on the political negotiation between the interim government and the existing parties, as well as the new political actor -- the students. 

How might the interim government balance reform goals with rising public impatience, especially in the face of economic downturns? 

The economic situation that Bangladesh is facing is a result of fifteen years of mismanagement and kleptocracy. They [Awami League] practically stole money. Billions of dollars have been stolen and siphoned off, because the previous government was relying on a small group of people. It was a kind of oligarchic system. A small number of people benefited and looted the banks. I call it looting because they took the money and never returned it. They took that money away from Bangladesh. This has caused a serious problem with economy, particularly since 2014 until the downfall of Hasina. There has been massive corruption in the name of infrastructural development, The interim government has inherited all these issues and it has to address them. These problems will not go away overnight; that’s not possible. Fifteen years of mismanagement, stealing billions of billions of dollars, borrowing money that never came to Bangladesh, or even if it came, it was largely wasted. 

These are daunting challenges for the current government. But one of the most important issue is the price hike. Prices spiked in the last year of the Hasina regime. The current government is having difficulty taming prices because most of these businesses of essentials are controlled by people connected to the previous regime. They would like to see this new government in turmoil, so they are manipulating the situation. The new government has inherited an administration where the police force doesn't work properly because they were used as a party weapon. Now some of these officials are on the run as they were engaged in killing people. Many had to be fired from their jobs. And most importantly, the loyalty of a large number of members of the police force, is questionable. This is because they were hired based on their political loyalty, rather than their qualifications. All these things have been inherited by this interim government. They're trying to address these problems. 

The larger political question, however, is the role of the Awami League. More than two thousand people have been killed within a span of three weeks. Twenty thousand people were injured. Indiscriminate killing and atrocities had taken place, but nobody, including Sheikh Hasina, has shown remorse. Nobody, not the political party, the leadership, not the supporters, nobody since August 5th has said a single thing. I repeat, no apology, no remorse, no repentance. Acts of subversion by the supporters of the deposed regime is rife. So, yes, this are challenges for the interim government to address. But it is not going to be easy. It is not going to be happening in a week or two.

What steps would be necessary to restore public confidence in government institutions post-Hasina?

Confidence in the state apparatus is improving, As the interim government is making changes, making some reforms as much as possible. The police force is a case in point. There is discontent among people against the police, for understandable reasons. 

Greater expectations have emerged because of the situation. People expect more and some are getting impatient, including some political parties. They are asking for an election as soon as possible, despite knowing the current situation. But a snap election is not going to be good for the country. These challenges are formidable, but I would not characterize it as lack of confidence in the state. State apparatuses are operating, albeit weakly in some cases; but overall state is functioning well. 

What strategies might Sheikh Hasina employ to regain public trust and political legitimacy if she seeks to return?

Sheikh Hasina has committed crimes against humanity, period. Let me reiterate this: she has committed crimes against humanity. She must be held accountable. Her crimes are so big that redemption in the political sense is unlikely. First and foremost, she must face justice. Under her rule, for 15 years, we had seen not one, not two, but hundreds of people becoming victims of extrajudicial killing. Under her government, hundreds of people became the victims of enforced disappearance. Enforced disappearance is a crime against humanity under international law, particularly under the Rome Statute. Those who have ordered and executed these sorts of things should be held accountable. There are media reports recounting the morning of August 5th, when she was insisting that the police use more lethal force and that the Army engage with people. A return to Bangladesh can only be to face justice, so it is not simply a question of regaining trust. Justice should be delivered to those who suffered, who lost their loved ones. Anything other than this, any conversation that implies that there can be a political rehabilitation of Sheikh Hasina is missing the reality of Bangladesh. It's unimaginable that she can be rehabilitated and regain people’s trust.

News Courtesy:

Asian Express Forum | November 12, 2024