Will US foreign policy towards Bangladesh change if Trump wins?

As the US election approaches, the air is buzzing with the question: Will Trump change the US foreign policy course once he gets elected, and will it affect us? The Business Standard spoke to geopolitical analysts to find out the answer. 

'An immediate shift in US policy towards Bangladesh highly unlikely'

There has been a lot of speculation regarding the impact of a second Donald Trump presidency on US foreign policy for Bangladesh. We need to consider two things here. As a matter of fact, there usually is continuity in US foreign policy, despite the fact that we have seen some ruptures and some changes in the past decade, particularly when it changed between Mr Trump and Mr Biden. 

So people are asking, if Trump comes to power, what would be his broader approach to international relations? In the broader picture, what is expected from him is that he would largely be protectionist and isolationist.

So within that context, we can imagine that there will be very little attention to the smaller countries, including Bangladesh. His policy might isolate the United States more, as we have seen previously during his first term. So if that is the case, I don't think there would be a major shift in terms of the policies. 

Having said that, there is a second point that I would like to draw attention to: Mr Trump has an affinity with autocratic leaders and autocratic regimes. So the closer relationship between Mr Modi and Mr Trump is likely to increase given their politics. Both of them seem to be very autocratic leaders. That might have some impact on the India-US relationship. 

But extending that beyond India in the region is at this point a mere speculation. We will have to wait and see. I do not anticipate an immediate shift even if Mr Trump comes to power in the future. It would depend on what kind of dynamics play out in global politics. 

Another important question is: What would be the relationship with China if Trump becomes president? Because when we are talking about the US-India relationship, there is this looming large entity: China. So what would be the relationship between the US and China? 

The posture towards China that, in large measure, would determine the US-India relationship beyond their usual relationship. So at this point, I do not anticipate a dramatic shift immediately if Mr Trump comes to power.

Also, pushing Trump to reduce support for the interim government would be detrimental to India's interests. As a matter of fact, what we have seen in India is what can be described as a lukewarm reaction to the Yunus government. But beyond that, we have seen that the Indian media and Indian establishment have engaged in misinformation campaigns about Bangladesh. 

Yes, there is no doubt about it that it has been backed up by the Indian establishment, and they are trying to use all the resources they have, including lobbying in the United States and beyond. So would that continue? That is likely to continue anyway until there is a very clear reversal or at least recalibration of Indian policy. It is somewhat unconnected to what happened in the United States. Even if Kamala Harris wins, I don't see any possibility that India is going to do a sudden 180-degree turn with respect to Bangladesh policy. It will take time. 

I hope that India will recalibrate its policy toward Bangladesh that is beneficial to their own interests. But the likelihood of that in the immediate term, I don't see that one. It would take time. The Bangladesh government has provided a very good gesture towards India, saying that they don't want an enemy or any kind of hostility. 

But the presence of the former autocrat of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, is a matter of concern for Bangladesh. But we'll see how she's treated through the judicial system in Bangladesh and how that works out. 

India's foreign policy, especially regional policy, is based on its own perspective. They don't have any friends in the region because of their own policies towards their neighbors. So as for Bangladesh, that might continue in the coming months, hopefully not in years.

And there is a perception that a Trump victory will embolden the Awami League. I think that if Mr Trump wins, they might think that this is their sort of opportunity for waging more campaigns or trying to be present on the political landscape.

We must remember that the perception of AL in Bangladesh would not determine US policy. The US policy would be determined by their interests. 

Perception is something that is not necessarily always tied to reality. Especially for the AL activists, who are living in their makebelieve world. The Hasina regime killed more than 2,000 people, and more than 20,000 people have been injured. But not a single word of remorse or repentance has been heard from the party, or their supporters or from the people who have given legitimacy to the autocratic regime, even though they are still in Bangladesh. 

News Courtesy:TBS News | November 3, 2024