Bangladeshis applaud leader’s ouster but fear old guard will strike back

The repeated success of the students over the past week has fueled hope across the capital, Dhaka, that the tremendous violence that culminated in Hasina’s overthrow will yield dramatic political and social changes, including in how Bangladesh elects its leaders and how its government, courts and police operate.

“We will keep hitting the streets if we have to,” said Shima Akhtar, a protester who said several of her friends had been killed by police during the demonstrations. “This is a time for real change.”

But expressions of hope were mixed with fears that the old guard would hijack the revolution by undermining the transitional government, headed by Nobel Peace laureate Muhammad Yunus. There are also concerns about the prospect of ethnic violence or a breakdown of law and order after the departure of Hasina, who had ruled with an increasingly iron fist over the past 15 years, and anxiety over the country’s deepening economic crisis.

“It’s not very easy to hope for something better,” said Mohammad Tanzimuddin Khan, a Dhaka University international studies professor who mentored the student protest leaders. “We had this same experience in the past and we failed every time.”

Since the country’s independence from Pakistan in 1971, Bangladesh has cycled through repeated military coups, dictatorships and alternating civilian rule by the old guard parties, Hasina’s Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), both led by dynastic figures.

This latest change of power was the bloodiest, with hundreds killed, most of them students. “This is the last chance for us,” Khan said.

Hasina’s rule left the country’s institutions deeply politicized and corrupted, political analysts say. The country’s constitution is riddled with amendments that have allowed elected leaders to abuse their powers. Experts say the last valid election was in 2008.

The temporary government led by Yunus is focused first on restoring law and order and eventually on overseeing fresh elections. But many critics of the old guard are asking for a more fundamental break with the two political parties that have long ruled the country.

“If the current constitution stays as is, how can we say that the next Hasina is not in the making?” asked Ali Riaz, an expert on Bangladeshi politics at Illinois State University.

Demonstrators, who have continued to protest peacefully, are offering a variety of proposals such as a new, bicameral parliament; a two-term limit for lawmakers; and a new system to nominate judges.

Leaders in the traditional political parties, however, retort that the members of the transitional government are unelected and have no standing to undertake such major changes. Yunus was chosen by the students in negotiations with the security chiefs and the president after Hasina resigned and fled the country, and other members are heads of development organizations, students and other activists.

The Awami League says the government “has no mandate” at all, according to Hasina’s son, Sajeeb Wazed.

“Anytime change is forced outside of the constitutional laws, it is not sustainable,” Wazed said in an interview. “This playbook doesn’t have a chance. Either Awami League or BNP will win an election. No one else is capable. If you talk about democracy, you have to hold elections.”

The BNP also stressed that the transitional period should be over as soon as possible. “This government is here for a specific task: the transition from an autocracy to a democracy,” said Abdul Moyeen Khan, a former BNP minister. “Whether we like it or not, we cannot get away from politics.”

But Syeda Rizwana Hasan, the adviser for environment in the transitional government, said the student-led movement has earned the right to lead through its actions and sacrifices. “If the political parties do not realize the difference in strength between their political standing and the political standing of the students, they would be miscalculating,” said Hasan, speaking at her home beside an array of congratulatory flowers. “These questions of legitimacy will always be there, but we have to earn legitimacy through our actions.”

While the transitional government could lose its legitimacy if it holds power for too long, some students say it will take time to form the new party they would like to see.

Experts such as Khan warn that the coming months could pose various dangers, including the targeting of minority communities. Bangladesh is majority-Muslim, with Hindus making up about 8 percent of the country’s 170 million people. They predominantly supported Hasina’s Awami League, which espoused secularism, and in the past week they have at times come under violent attack.

Khan said the publicity around these sporadic attacks makes it seem as if Hindus have been left vulnerable to violence by Islamist extremists without Hasina there to protect them. The attacks, he said, are part of a “campaign to claim that if Hasina is not in power, this country will be a country of fanatics.”

Bangladeshis are also imperiled by the desperate state of the economy. The country has been celebrated for the success of its garment industry, which has become a key, low-cost supplier to companies such as H&M and Zara, and is now second only to that of China. But the pandemic undercut demand, pummeling the industry. The country is so dependent on this lone sector that Bangladesh hasn’t been able to generate enough employment for the 2 million people entering the workforce each year. Also stoking the economic crisis have been increases in the cost of food and fuel imports due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and other supply-chain disruptions.

Employment grievances fueled the protests of the past month, which were triggered by the expansion of affirmative action for government jobs. People whose families participated in Bangladesh’s freedom struggle, many tied to the Awami League, were promised preferential treatment.

“My worst fear would be failing to deliver what the children hoped to achieve from this movement,” said Sharmeen Murshid, the adviser for social welfare in the transitional government. She added, “We are not a government that came through business as usual. We came through a children’s movement.”

The challenge of fostering economic growth is tied up with that of restoring law and order. Stability had long made Bangladesh attractive to foreign investors.

A week after Hasina fled, police remain far from public view. But students have stepped into the void. Students carrying sticks and donning donated neon vests have been directing snarled traffic. Other volunteers swept shattered glass from around the high-rise building that housed the pro-government television channel.

Another team of students, armed with notebooks, entered one of Dhaka’s largest wholesale markets. They checked the prices being charged by every seller to make sure no one was inflating them to take advantage of the turmoil.

“If we, the students, ever catch a bribe, we will take action against you and the bribe collector,” said Sajjad Hossain, 23, wearing a ribbon around his head with the Bangladeshi flag and shouting into a megaphone. His voice carried down the small alley lined with stacks of rice bags.

“We will liberate Bangladesh again if it comes to that,” he yelled amid a chorus of cheers.